Model Hyper Parameters
Training dates 2016-09-01 to 2019-12-30
Lift Analysis
Lift is the expected contribution of the channel to the overall prediction.
“If we removed the channel, what percent of total Submits would we lose?”
|
|
2017
|
2018
|
2019
|
|
(Intercept)
|
-2.1%
|
-2.2%
|
-2.2%
|
|
tv
|
5.8%
|
7.0%
|
7.0%
|
|
semBR
|
3.4%
|
3.6%
|
3.6%
|
|
semNB
|
2.0%
|
2.4%
|
2.3%
|
|
app
|
3.6%
|
5.0%
|
7.6%
|
|
social
|
3.0%
|
3.7%
|
6.3%
|
|
digital
|
NA%
|
NA%
|
NA%
|
|
email_marketing
|
-0.2%
|
-0.1%
|
-0.1%
|
|
email_operational
|
5.9%
|
3.7%
|
5.4%
|
|
email_savedsearch
|
0.1%
|
0.2%
|
0.2%
|
|
SEO_bigcity
|
4.3%
|
5.1%
|
3.4%
|
|
SEO_hdp
|
3.6%
|
3.5%
|
3.0%
|
|
push_android
|
-1.9%
|
-1.3%
|
-1.9%
|
|
push_ios
|
1.1%
|
1.9%
|
3.4%
|
|
active_listings
|
NA%
|
NA%
|
NA%
|
|
nonbrand_queries
|
74.0%
|
75.2%
|
78.6%
|

CPA Analysis
|
date
|
tv
|
semBR
|
semNB
|
app
|
social
|
digital
|
|
2016-09-01
|
$36.96
|
$5.06
|
$45.57
|
$8.01
|
$16.42
|
Inf
|
|
2017-01-01
|
$41.37
|
$5.41
|
$44.68
|
$8.38
|
$17.36
|
Inf
|
|
2018-01-01
|
$38.80
|
$5.84
|
$45.32
|
$8.83
|
$17.71
|
Inf
|
|
2019-01-01
|
$32.96
|
$6.46
|
$45.21
|
$8.90
|
$18.79
|
Inf
|



Error Plot

Variable Analysis
Variable Correlation

Variable plots
Owned
## [1] "email_marketing" "email_operational" "email_savedsearch"
## [4] "push_android" "push_ios"

Search
## [1] "SEO_bigcity" "SEO_hdp" "nonbrand_queries"

Apendix
Seasonal Variable
|
|
Estimate
|
t value
|
Pr(>|t|)
|
|
christmas
|
-9,454
|
-9.768
|
0.000
|
|
easter
|
-4,634
|
-4.474
|
0.000
|
|
fathers
|
-2,619
|
-2.517
|
0.012
|
|
halloween
|
-1,943 *
|
-1.540
|
0.124
|
|
independence
|
-9,288
|
-6.286
|
0.000
|
|
labor
|
-2,367
|
-3.145
|
0.002
|
|
martin
|
1,024 *
|
0.712
|
0.477
|
|
memorial
|
-3,532
|
-3.998
|
0.000
|
|
mothers
|
-3,206
|
-3.069
|
0.002
|
|
new
|
-6,421
|
-6.185
|
0.000
|
|
presidents
|
3,076
|
2.134
|
0.033
|
|
super
|
-665 *
|
-0.459
|
0.646
|
|
thanksgiving
|
-4,192
|
-5.882
|
0.000
|
|
valentines
|
-4,883
|
-3.408
|
0.001
|
|
year2017
|
-517 *
|
-1.387
|
0.166
|
|
year2018
|
-2,668
|
-5.217
|
0.000
|
|
year2019
|
-6,796
|
-8.855
|
0.000
|
|
month2
|
2,355
|
5.135
|
0.000
|
|
month3
|
1,665
|
3.446
|
0.001
|
|
month4
|
1,423
|
2.465
|
0.014
|
|
month5
|
-1,938
|
-3.012
|
0.003
|
|
month6
|
-1,776
|
-2.720
|
0.007
|
|
month7
|
-608 *
|
-0.916
|
0.360
|
|
month8
|
-843 *
|
-1.612
|
0.107
|
|
month9
|
-2,669
|
-5.789
|
0.000
|
|
month10
|
-3,595
|
-8.345
|
0.000
|
|
month11
|
-4,956
|
-11.094
|
0.000
|
|
month12
|
-7,087
|
-15.731
|
0.000
|
|
wdayMonday
|
3,383
|
8.274
|
0.000
|
|
wdaySaturday
|
-162 *
|
-0.454
|
0.650
|
|
wdaySunday
|
-1,988
|
-4.364
|
0.000
|
|
wdayThursday
|
1,680
|
4.756
|
0.000
|
|
wdayTuesday
|
2,723
|
7.104
|
0.000
|
|
wdayWednesday
|
2,542
|
6.954
|
0.000
|